A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
