Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
